Dallas Mavericks vs. Minnesota Timberwolves Game 4 Odds and Predictions (2024)

The 2023-24 NBA playoff action continues as we move to the latter stage of the conference finals. The lone game on the schedule for Tuesday night features the Dallas Mavericks hosting the Minnesota Timberwolves in Game 4 of the Western Conference finals.

Here is a look at which squad has the edge in this matchup and why.

Mavericks vs. Timberwolves – How We Got Here & Betting Trends

Dallas is a slight favorite heading into Game 4

See Also

Was D'Angelo Russell the Timberwolves' Problem or Their Solution?A Deep Dive: The Dallas Mavericks Win Game 1 of the Western ConferenceClosers Luka Doncic and Kyrie Irving have Mavs on verge of sweeping Wolves in West finalsMavericks rally past Timberwolves, secure 3-0 series lead

After beating the Timberwolves on their home floor in Games 1 and 2, the Mavericks emerged victorious in Game 3 by a 116-107 margin, thus putting them in the driver's seat. Luka Dončić — whose status was questionable — led the Mavericks' charge with 33 points, seven rebounds, five assists, and five steals. He shot 10-for-20 from the field and 5-for-11 from beyond the arc.

Kyrie Irving also finished with 33 points (including 14 in the final frame) on 12-for-20 shooting from the floor. He hit three of his six attempts from the 3-point line. He also tallied four assists and three rebounds. P.J. Washington Jr., who hit a key 3-point in the fourth quarter, finished with 16 points and eight rebounds. From an offensive standpoint, the Mavericks were clicking on all cylinders. In addition to shooting 55.9 percent overall, they also converted 14 of their 28 attempts from long range.

In another close game, however, the team's defense proved to be the difference. Dallas trailed by two points (104-102) at the five-minute mark in the fourth quarter. They closed the contest on a game-changing 14-3 run that saw them shoot a perfect 5-for-5 while holding Minnesota to just 1-of-8 shooting during that stretch. When advised that no team has ever overcome a 3-0 deficit, Kyrie Irving was not interested in such talk.

Whether Irving chooses to agree with the stat is irrelevant. Regardless of how close the game is, the best team has won those games down the stretch, and that trend will be on display once again in Game 4 -- a game in which the Mavericks will punch their ticket to the team's third trip to an NBA Finals series.

Meanwhile, the Timberwolves are in deep, deep trouble. The good news is the Timberwolves have been competitive in all three games. The bad news is they find themselves facing the unenviable task of trying to climb out of an 0-3 hole. Prior to the team's 116-107 loss in Game 3, Anthony Edwards stated that he would be more aggressive. He made good on those words, finishing with 26 points, nine rebounds, and nine assists. Although he took only three shots after helping Minnesota tie the game at 75 in the third quarter, it was his best performance of the series thus far.

Unfortunately, his All-Star teammate, Karl-Anthony Towns, continues to struggle. KAT finished with 14 points on 5-for-18 shooting overall, including an 0-for-8 effort from distance. He averaged 19 points per contest on over 50 percent shooting in the first two rounds of the playoffs. But in this matchup against Dallas, Towns is averaging just 15 points per contest on 27.8 percent shooting from the field and 13.6 percent from deep.

The main reason the Timberwolves have failed to win a game in this series is their inability to execute down the stretch. In Game 2, they were up by as many as 18 points in the first half and held a five-point lead with 1:30 left in regulation. They went on to lose that game 109-108. In Game 3, they led 104-102 at the five-minute mark in the fourth quarter. With an opportunity to notch their first win, they missed seven straight shots and finished 1-for-8 from the floor, which allowed their opponent to coast to an easy victory. The team's continued late-game miscues is something the head coach spoke about following Game 3.

Look for the Timberwolves to play an inspired brand of basketball in Game 4. But when it's said and done, the Mavericks will be heading to their third NBA Finals appearance in franchise history and their first trip since 2011.

Now that the stage has been set for this pivotal Game 4 showdown, it's time to examine the betting trends for both teams.

Mavericks vs. Timberwolves Picks

GIVEMESPORT presents our picks with analysis

Spread

Despite taking a commanding 3-0 lead in the series, the Mavericks come into this matchup as a slight two-point favorite (per BleacherNation.com). Here is a look at how both ball clubs have fared against the spread this season.

• The Timberwolves are 2-6 ATS in their last eight games.
• Minnesota has covered the spread 10 times in their last 14 road games.
• Dallas is 6-2 ATS in its last eight matchups against Western Conference opponents.
• In their last eight outings against teams in the Northwest Division, the Mavericks are 6-2 against the spread.
• Prediction: Dallas Mavericks (-2)

Over/Under

The projected over/under total for this matchup opened at 210 points, but the total has climbed to 210.5 points at the time of this writing (per Pre-Game.com). Here is why going with the “over” is the smart choice.

• In the Timberwolves' last 17 matchups against Western Conference opponents, the OVER total prevailed 12 times.
• The OVER total has a perfect 5-0 record in the Timberwolves’ last five matchups against Southwest Division opponents.
• The total has gone OVER four times in the Mavericks’ last five outings.
• In the Mavericks’ last 13 May games, the OVER total is 9-4.
• Prediction: OVER 210.5 points

Player Prop Bets

Anthony Edwards is Minnesota's unquestioned superstar. But he has not gotten much help from his All-Star teammate, Karl-Anthony Towns, who has had more shot attempts than points in each of the first three games of this series.

If Minnesota is to avoid getting swept, it will need a huge outing from KAT. With that in mind, he is my key player to watch in this contest. He currently has -123 odds of scoring more than 19.5 points and -111 odds of finishing with less than 19.5 points (via Caesars Sportsbook).

Do Towns’s numbers favorably compare to the estimated points total for this matchup? Let’s look at the tale of the tape to find out.

• Towns is averaging 26.3 points per contest across 76 regular season and playoff games.
• In seven games against the Mavericks this season, he has averaged 18.4 points per contest.
• During the postseason, Towns is averaging 18.0 points per outing.
• KAT has played against Western Conference teams 53 times this season (including the playoffs). In those contests, he has averaged 19.6 points per outing.
• In 20 matchups against Southwest Division opponents, the Timberwolves big man is averaging 19.4 points per game.
• Over his last 10 outings, Towns has averaged 17.5 points, 8.9 rebounds, and 2.9 assists per contest, exceeding the points total for this matchup four times during that stretch.

Prediction: Karl-Anthony Towns OVER 19.5 points

On the other side, Luka Dončić has played exceptionally well in this series, thus making him the key player to watch for Dallas in this potential closeout game. He currently has -110 odds of scoring more than 30.5 points and -110 odds of finishing with less than 30.5 points.

Here is a look at how his numbers stack up against the projected points total for this matchup.

• Doncic is averaging 32.9 points per contest during the regular season and playoffs.
• In five matchups against Minnesota this season, he has averaged 34.2 points per contest.
• During the postseason, he is averaging 28.3 points per outing.
• Doncic has played against Western Conference teams 57 times this season (including the playoffs). In those contests, he is averaging 31.9 points per outing.
• In 23 matchups against Northwest Division opponents, the Mavericks guard is averaging 31.8 points per game.
• Over his last 10 outings, Doncic has averaged 27.4 points, 9.3 rebounds, and 9.1 assists per contest, exceeding the points total for this matchup four times during that stretch.
• Prediction: Luka Dončić OVER 30.5 points

Mavericks vs. Timberwolves Final Picks

• The Spread: Dallas Mavericks (-2) Bleacher Nation
• Over/Under: OVER 210.5 points (Pre-Game.com)
• Player Prop Bet #1: Karl-Anthony Towns OVER 19.5 points
• Player Prop Bet #2: Luka Dončić OVER 30.5 points