Following a somewhat quiet primary season in statehouse and congressional contests this election year, Western Slope politicos are gearing up for their main event: the November general election.
There will be several contested, competitive elections in the region, with the winners helping make decisions on how the state and country move forward on key issues like water, education, taxes and infrastructure.
Political players from both sides of the aisle will soon begin a full bombardment of mailers, television advertisem*nts and door-knocking campaigns as candidates try to persuade voters to support them.
Some candidates on the Western Slope, like Aspen Democrat Adam Frisch, have amassed huge amounts of funding to help them along the way, indicating those races will be hard fought. With $13 million in contributions, Frisch has raised the third most of any U.S. House of Representatives candidate in the country, behind only the former Speaker of the House Kevin McCarthy and Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries.
Some races are in districts with similar numbers of Republicans and Democrats, making the elections highly competitive.
When district lines were redrawn following the 2020 census, nonpartisan staffers at the Colorado legislature analyzed their demographics for political indicators. In a report, they demonstrated competitiveness using percentages, with positive percentages indicating how likely the district is to vote a Republican into office and negative percentages pointing to how likely it is to vote in a Democrat. The closer the numbers are to zero, the more competitive the district.
While the November elections have virtually no chance of impacting which party has a majority at the state Capitol due to the near supermajority held by Democrats in both chambers, the contests could play a part in decreasing those majorities and tempering the powerful mandate currently held by Democrats.
The federal elections could play a part in which party controls Congress, with particular focus on Colorado’s 3rd Congressional District.
State-level elections
Candidates running in the state House and Senate seats are elected to travel to Denver each year to attend the 120-day legislative sessions from January through early May.
These representatives focus on state-level issues like property taxes, state gun regulations, wolf reintroduction and state transportation corridors.
House District 26 is a competitive district covering the northwest corner of the state, including areas like Vail, Steamboat Springs and Moffat County. Democrat Meghan Lukens, a Steamboat Springs resident and teacher, was elected to represent the district in 2022.
Lukens will face Republican Nathan Butler, a Craig City Council member and Army veteran, in the November election.
The race is likely to be one of the most competitive in the region, with nonpartisan staffers finding it less than 3% in favor of Democrats.
So far, Lukens has raised $50,000 and spent about $3,200 while Butler has raised $2,650 and spent $2,194, according to state campaign finance records.
Senate District 5 is another highly competitive district, spanning areas south of Interstate 70, including the Roaring Fork Valley, Montrose and Lake City. It is represented by Republican Perry Will, who decided not to run for re-election to instead enter the race for Garfield County commissioner.
Republican Marc Catlin, who is currently a state representative for House District 58, will face off against Democrat Carl Buerger in the election.
The district was ranked as having a 3% tilt toward Republicans.
Catlin has raised $22,000 in contributions and spent $3,400 while Buerger has raised $38,000 and spent $19,000.
House District 57 covers the Roaring Fork Valley and part of the Western portion of the I-70 corridor, including Parachute and Silt. It is currently represented by Democrat Elizabeth Velasco, a Glenwood Springs resident.
The district was ranked as having nearly 16% tilt toward Democrats, according to the nonpartisan staffer report.
Velasco will face Republican Caleb Waller in the general election.
Velasco, who started off with $16,000 on hand, has raised $36,000 and spent nearly $41,000 while Waller has raised $1,150 and spent less than $1,000.
House District 13 covers all the way from the state border with Wyoming through Kremmling, Granby, Breckenridge and Fairplay. It is currently represented by Democrat Julie McCluskie, a Frisco resident who is also the Speaker of the House.
McCluskie, who is well known throughout the district and at the statehouse, holds a strong advantage over her Republican opponent, Buena Vista resident Dave Williams. The district has a more than 5% favoring for Democrats. Williams is also facing difficulties in his campaign because he shares the same name as the controversial chair of the state Republican Party.
McCluskie has raised $31,000 and spent $17,000, and Williams has raised nearly $7,000 and spent $1,200.
State Senate elections are staggered, so Sen. Dylan Roberts, who represents a huge swatch of the Western Slope under Senate District 8 is not up for re-election until 2026.
Federal elections
3rd Congressional District spans a huge portion of the southwest area of the state, stretching from the Roaring Fork Valley and Grand Junction all the way to Pueblo.
Frisch, a former Aspen city councilman, will take on Grand Junction attorney Jeff Hurd.
The district favors Republicans, but Frisch narrowly lost to Republican Rep. Lauren Boebert by only 546 votes in 2022. Boebert later moved to a different district that is more favorable to Republicans. Indicators point to the 3rd District leaning away from Boebert specifically, rather than Republicans in general.
Both parties seemed to believe Frisch would have had an easier time defeating a different primary candidate, like former state lawmaker Ron Hanks, who is known for his hardline conservative views on issues like immigration and abortion.
Frisch’s campaign has acknowledged it’s facing an uphill battle with Hurd as the Republican candidate.
“Without Boebert’s well-known extremism to run against, this race is going to be even harder,” according to a fundraising email from his campaign the week of the primary.
Hurd has raised $1 million in contributions so far, compared to Frisch’s $13 million.
2nd Congressional District includes portions of the Front Range and the Western Slope, such as Boulder, Estes Park, Steamboat Springs, Vail and Breckenridge.
Rep. Joe Neguse, who currently holds the position, will face off against Republican Marshall Dawson in the solidly Democratic district.
Neguse defeated Dawson by 42 percentage points in 2022.
The district, once represented by Gov. Jared Polis, hasn’t elected a Republicansince the 1970s.
