Week 17 fantasy football rankings, projections, sleepers: Trey Lance, Van Jefferson and my best and worst calls of 2021 (2024)

This might be the most unexpected pre fantasy football rankings, ranks. I’m not sure how many of you are even reading this late into the season. I hope most everyone still is for the fun, GIFs, etc., but I know we’re down to the minimum. So, I’m saving a lot of the remaining ranking suggestions for 2022 (wrestlers, fast food, Curb episodes, etc.). Instead, for this week, I figured I’d give you my Top 10 “calls” for 2021.

With my sleepers, starts, sits and bold ranks (high or low) there were plenty of good takes, and yes, there were some bad ones, which is actually where this idea came from — last week, moving Amon-Ra St. Brown from a Top 20 receiver to the low 30s was the wrong move, even with Tim Boyle at quarterback. I assumed the Lions would be like the Mike Glennon/Jake Fromm mess, which was why we weren’t interested in Kadarius Toney or Kenny Golladay. Heck, we had seen how bad Boyle was already. Nevertheless, St. Brown not only proved to be quarterback immune, he was the WR7 for Week 16. Trust me, I feel your pain as I played DK Metcalf and Cordarrelle Patterson (WR eligible) over him. I’m sorry… very.

That’s why I’m also including my five worst calls. I only went back to Week 6, as originally, I was going to do the best call from each week for 10 weeks, but then pivoted and had already found 10 good calls (and five bad ones). So, yeah, anyway… let’s go enjoy my greatness and laugh at my failures (but with the ultimate goal of learning from both).

Top 10 Good Calls

Bonus: Mo Alie-Cox, Week 6 — Alie-Cox was near the top in Colts end zone targets and facing the Texans/heavy Cover-2. One catch, but it was a touchdown. Putting this here as a reminder when looking for streaming tight ends. Teams running a high percentage of Cover-2 are exploitable underneath, including tight ends.
Double Bonus: Tee Higgins, Week 12 — Funny how perception can change, because if anyone suggested benching Higgins now, you’d call them insane. However, Higgins was coming off a 2-for-15 game, and despite having 78 and 97 yards in the two previous games, people were in full panic mode. In Week 12, Higgins started a run of three straight games with 100+ yards (adding a touchdown). Even if you weren’t part of the panic crowd, this was an example of top-end receivers simply not being perfect. Even Cooper Kupp has a single-digit score, and Deebo Samuel has two. Sure, Higgins isn’t a Top 5 receiver, but that’s the difference between near-perfection and a top-end WR2.

10. Marvin Jones, Week 6 — Early in the year, the Dolphins secondary couldn’t stop anyone, and Jones went 10/7/100/1 for his best game of the year. You’ll see soon (below) that targeting the No. 2 receiver in favorable matchups doesn’t work as often, but a No. 1 (when actually a No. 1, as Jones still was this early in the year) will hit more often than not.
9. Melvin Gordon, Week 9 — Backfield is still a split, but everyone is pining for Javonte Williams to get the majority of the work. Williams got his (17-for-111), but MG3 had 80 and a touchdown. The lesson here is something we’ll touch on again, and that is to believe what teams tell us. Sure, we always like the shiny new toy and want the better talent to take over — especially at running back — but the Broncos weren’t/aren’t going to stop using what works, especially when running back “health” is near impossible to maintain over a full season’s workload.
8. Damien Harris, Week 13 — There were concerns over Rhamondre Stevenson taking over the lead (which he did with 24 carries to Harris’ 10) and the Bills matchup. The Bills hadn’t stopped many great running backs, and the weather helped Harris put up 10/111/1 on the ground. This is a bit of a mix between understanding split backfields aren’t a curse when both are consistently used, and that all matchups need context. Early in the year, people feared receivers against the Chargers, but it was a mistake because it was more teams not throwing as much, as the Chargers were just so beatable on the ground. With the Bills, they had struggled against most top-end running backs while shutting down poor teams and players.
7. James Robinson, Week 14 — This was a good, bad one, as Week 14 is when I started the “Possibly Bench” and “Maybe Start” options since sleepers were all but gone. The Titans run defense was a tough matchup, and Urban Meyer was still around ruining things, and Robinson had… 6-for-4 on the ground. That is not a typo. Volume isn’t always king, and as tough as it is to get away from — especially at running back — sometimes, it’s the right call. After all, the Giants offense is ruining Saquon Barkley before our very eyes, even with heavy work.
6. Boston Scott, Week 8 — This was the week when Chris Meaney and I kept hammering Scott being the first one up with Miles Sanders out, which he was… though, Jordan Howard got his too, as both scored twice. When trying to predict a team’s plans and use, we have to believe what teams “tell us.” Sometimes, it’s when a team signs a player (Baltimore signing Josh Johnson two weeks ago, when people thought Lamar Jackson might play the week after his injury) and sometimes, it’s the use in previous games or snap counts. The Eagles love to run, and Scott is always at least half of the timeshare, if not the lead, when Sanders is out.

5. Tyler Lockett, Week 8 — Wait? Lockett? Well, yeah, because this was with Geno Smith, who found him for 12/142/0 on 13 targets. Everyone was ready to bench Lockett without Russell Wilson and didn’t care that it was the Jaguars, or that were especially forgiving to slot work. Lockett could be an example of why my St. Brown rankings drop was a mistake, but even so, Lockett is a proven vet. He carries a bit more cachet in showing us that not all quarterback “downgrades” are considered equal, and many times — unless it’s a dumpster fire along the lines of Mike Glennon’s level — we shouldn’t move players down too far when the receiver is a great talent (Mark Andrews with Johnson against the Bengals).
4. Michael Pittman, Week 15 — This was another “Bench ” situation, and before Pittman got tossed from the game, he only had 1-for-7 on five targets, as J.C. Jackson and the Patriots secondary is a fearsome matchup. Matchups can get overrated, and using APA helps, as it attempts to account for the strength of the offensive opponent. Matchups do need to be a factor in your decisions though, and it especially becomes a concern when the volume isn’t guaranteed (passing game). At least with running backs, double-digit touches are a near guarantee (I said near because of JRob), but receivers can get eliminated from the equation, even when it’s a Top 25 wideout.
3. Jamison Crowder, Week 11 — The Dolphins secondary has been playing much better in the second half the season, especially outside, but they’re quite susceptible underneath and to the slot, and Crowder had 6/44/1. Matchups! And this isn’t just about good versus bad secondary/passing game. This was exploiting a particular facet of the defense when the receiving options are close in talent. Another example of this is when Tyler Boyd went ape nuts on the Broncos underneath, as the perimeter corners were a tough draw.
2. Michael Carter, Week 8 — Mentioned that even if Ty Johnson was active (he was), Carter’s passing game volume was just too good — he had 14/9/95/0 receiving. As we saw in Week 16, and when trying to decide between pieces of a split backfield, you want the pass-catching option more often than not. Sometimes, James Conner worked when he found the end zone (okay, quite a few times), but the pass-catcher has more guaranteed work and a high ceiling in shootouts. Even if the game script goes more run-heavy, a split backfield still means a touchdown is needed for double-digits fantasy points.
1. Kendrick Bourne, Week 12 — Attacking that Titans secondary, Bourne had an 18.4 TeamTGT% from Weeks 8-11 and scored twice in Week 12. This is a pure matchup gamble and taking the risk with the options most likely to score a touchdown. Where we love the passing game volume for running backs in shared backfields, when receivers are on similar levels (Jakobi Meyers), chase the touchdown potential, as it’s simple math… one touchdown is the same as 4-for-40 (or 3-for-45; you get the idea) receiving.

Top 5 Bad Calls

5. Brandin Cooks, Week 11 — The Volume King let me down, as the Titans were coming off a game where three Saints wideouts had double-digits. Tyrod Taylor barely threw for 100 yards, and Cooks had his worst game of the season (2-for-18). This is the one without a major takeaway. I guess we can say volume isn’t always king when the team is in shambles, but Cooks was never meant to be more than a WR3, so hitting double-digits every game (even with favorable matchups) just wasn’t in the cards. Okay, so maybe my lesson was not to push Cooks into WR2 territory… ranks wise.
4. Miles Sanders, Week 12 — Giants are susceptible to the run, and Jordan Howard was out. Sanders had 9-for-64, which wasn’t awful, but it wasn’t good enough for even RB2 value. Also, it was not the greatest learning opportunity, as it’s more about the risk of a shared backfield. Going back to trying to predict use, sometimes coaches have schemes/use in mind that we don’t see coming. The Saints matchup for the Dolphins this past Monday night is a good example. Myles Gaskin was used slightly more in the passing game the week prior, despite seeing significantly fewer snaps than Duke Johnson. Teams had found a bit more success in the passing game with running backs than rushing, which pointed to Gaskin, but he was third in the rotation. The Eagles used Scott more against the Giants, so even though Sanders was great on a per-touch basis, it was a mediocre showing.
3. DeVonta Smith, Week 13 — Liked him more before Jalen Hurts was sidelined for Gardner Minshew, but I didn’t come off Smith against the Jets. We remember the Minshew Mania, but he had an amazing connection with Dallas Goedert and near nothing with Smith. We’re back to volume is king, but on the other end… where not getting volume is… Jack? (See what I did there?) This isn’t a rookie issue with Smith (see: Jaylen Waddle). But using Waddle as a comparison, Smith has 7+ targets just six times this year — last week was the first since Week 7 — and he hadn’t topped six heading into this matchup. Smith profiles as a DeSean Jackson type, and he can hit peak DJax value next season, which would have him in the WR2 conversation. However, even with that peak, these receivers are nearly matchup agnostic and can blow up against the worst matchup or disappear against the most favorable one. If Smith is your WR3, you’re golden, just as you were even with peak Jackson, but don’t overdraft him as your WR2 next year.
2. Zack Moss, Week 6 — Titans started weak against the run, Moss was in the Top 10 for Goal-to-Go attempts, and I even said, “I should know better than to trust Moss”… alas… In the end, Moss had just eight carries for 24 yards with Devin Singletary “leading the way” with 5-for-27. As with the Ravens, Cam Newton-led teams, etc., unless the backfield has a bellcow running back (Singletary finally has been of late), avoid trying to guess which running back should lead when the quarterback takes away much already.
1. Chase Claypool, Weeks 8 and 15 — He gets the No. 1 spot for my getting fooled… twice. In Week 8 (post JuJu Smith-Schuster injury), Claypool had the No. 2 role to himself, but Ben Roethlisberger was mediocre, and Claypool had just 4-for-45. And this was even before dealing with a toe issue. In Week 15, I went back to Claypool, as the toe issue was seemingly improving, and there was extra rest before the Titans pass defense matchup. Ben Roethlisberger had just 148 yards and no touchdowns, with Claypool having 12 yards on zero receptions. Yes. He ran for 18 on a six-yard lateral. Sometimes, the third option in an offense (behind a running back and wideout in this case), is simply too inconsistent when the offense and quarterback play can go belly up any given week. Look at how we never/rarely got anything from Robby Anderson, Allen Robinson (yes, Darnell Mooney was the No. 1 rather quick), Odell Beckham on the Browns/Donovan Peoples-Jones, etc.

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🚨 REMINDER 🚨
Updated through inactives on Sunday
Sleepers are upside, often riskier, picks. Don’t bench players ranked higher… unless you’re shooting for upside

2021 Week 17 Fantasy Football Sleepers

READ THIS! Going to mix things up a bit with the playoffs nearly here. Sleepers are tough to find and don’t carry as much weight by this point. So instead, I’m going to post a couple possible BENCH and START INSTEAD options. As with sleepers, these will not mimic my rankings 100%. This is chasing upside and often carries more risk, but based on APA matchups, you can “go for broke” if needed.

QUARTERBACK

POSSIBLY START: Matthew Stafford, LAR — If you’re considering benching Stafford after surviving some down games, just look at what Joe Burrow did last week. The Ravens are on about a fourth-string of players in the secondary.

HAIL MARY START: Trey Lance, SF — Here we go. Honestly, Lance isn’t too different from Jalen Hurts, who no one will think twice about being inside the Top 10. Sure, Lance is a rookie and didn’t look NFL ready as a passer, but reports are good, he has better weapons than Hurts does, and the rushing is the real appeal.

RUNNING BACK

POSSIBLY START: D’Andre Swift, DET — If the Lions activate Swift, we would assume he’s ready to lead, even if it’s only 50% of the work with the other half shared between Jamaal Williams and Craig Reynolds. After all, why bring back Swift with only two games left if he’s not going to lead? The Seahawks are one of the best matchups you can find for running backs in Week 17.

HAIL MARY START: Ke’Shawn Vaughn, TB — This doesn’t have much to do with Vaughn’s box score, as we know the majority of his value came on one big run. That’s the upside gamble here, as the Jets are the best matchup this week, and 7-10 touches for Vaughn could easily turn into another big play and/or a touchdown.

WIDE RECEIVER

POSSIBLY START: Van Jefferson and Odell Beckham, LAR — We’ve seen them find the end zone in the same game multiple times, and again, we’re going back to the Ravens matchup. Or, do you need a reminder that Tee Higgins scored twice while Tyler Boyd and Joe Mixon caught a touchdown too? Okay, fine, three wideouts didn’t score, but Ja’Marr Chase still had 7-for-125… bum.

HAIL MARY START: Breshad Perriman, TB — Fresh off COVID, that’s the risk with using Perriman, as there’s a chance that Tom Brady spreads it around to everyone but Perriman. Heck, he might go to Tyler Johnson even after his big ol’ goose egg last week. However, Perriman running as the No. 2 against the Jets defense could easily turn into one of those three or four-catch games with 100 yards and a score.

TIGHT END

POSSIBLY START: Gerald Everett, SEA — Since Week 10, Everett has three double-digit fantasy scores and just two under 8.0 points (2.7 against the 49ers and 5.2 versus the Cardinals stingy defense, especially to tight ends). Additionally, the Seahawks get the Lions, who let Kyle Pitts go 6-for-6 with 102 yards and Hayden Hurst to score, plus 74 yards to Zach Ertz the week before, a Albert Okwuegbunam (Yes! I got it without checking first — sorry, self-celebration for spelling that correctly) score in Week 14 with Noah Fant posting 4/4/51, and plenty of other tight ends doing damage.

HAIL MARY START: John Bates, WSH — Bates has passed Ricky Seals-Jones in usage, and the Eagles continue to let tight ends find the end zone (now 12 TDs on the year). Evan Engram scored last week with Ryan Griffin and Chris Myarick in Weeks 12-13… yeah.

Sure, Bates had just 1/1/29 the first time, but he was still sharing more with RSJ at that point, who had 7/4/29. We’re shooting for the touchdown here.

Week 17 Fantasy Football Projections

🚨 HEADS UP 🚨
These differ some from my rankings, and my ranks are the exact order I’d start players. Just like preseason projections and rankings, I’ll play some with more upside even though a bit behind in projected points.
Also, based on 4-point TDs for QB, 6-point rest, and Half-PPR

Quarterback Projections

Running Back Projections

Wide Receiver Projections

Tight End Projections

Week 17 Fantasy Football Rankings

Again, these differ some from the projections, and my ranks are the exact order I’d start players.
ECR: Stands for Expert Consensus Rank. Don’t focus on it too much, as not all experts update consistently/constantly

(Photo by Dylan Buell/Getty Images)